My Redpill Journey as a Data Miner

My 3 years journey with Data

Hi ,

I am Chiranjit , I was working for Redpill as a data miner. I joined Repill in Jan ’07. Got wonderful opportunity to play with data and solve the business problems. Among all the statistical solutions we have given to the client,70% is scorecards and 25% is segmentation and the remaining is KPI analysis.

Now we will discuss few things about the scorecard building. No doubt this is the bread and butter for us.

Before starting the details or process, lets take a glance of what exactly we have done till now.

In Asia Pacific & Middle East, we have given statistical solutions to n number of banks and telecom companies. Now Bank is a big word. Every Bank is having different Line of Businesses or LOBs and we have worked with most of the LOBs.

Like credit card, starting from credit cards, how to acquire good customers, How to increase the revenue from the existing base, How to manage the loss, how to stop attrition all these.

Same things for Retail banking, where they have Saving, Current accounts, Term deposits, Loans etc , SME and microfinance we have worked with. Also we have helped telecom companies in attrition management.

Let me take you to the vantage point now and you will get a bird eye view of a statistical scorecard that we sell to the client. All our analysis is just to come to this point , we find the best characteristics for the customers depending on the objective , then for each category we estimate the weight and summarizing all these we get a score or probability . It helps in the solution.

Now I want to do a little quiz before starting what is Scorecard. Tell me, you are going to a HDFC branch and asking for your saving account balance to the Personal banker how much does it costs to the Bank?? You are going to ATM and taking your last 5 transactions slip how much does it cost?? On an average it costs 12-15 rupees for a bank to call a customer for Personal loan or Credit card.

So the point is , it is very important to prioritize their action . It is impossible for HDFC bank, ICICI or Citi bank to call all their salary account customers and sell Personal loan. If they take randomly 10000 customers which is their capacity may be they will get 100 customers taking PLS but if it is possible to find the highly likely 10000 customers , they will 500 -1000 customers taking , Cost is same but profit is 5-10 times. So the point is prioritization and that what scorecard is doing.

In broader sense, there are two different aspects of this prioritization. First is , customer centricity , because you are using historical data so you know what exactly the customer wants . If one customer is calling to phone banking service , the executive is having in the system what is the best product for him or her that bank can offer.

The Second benefit is, it will make the organization very very scientific. Standing in November you can forecast what is the total loss going to hit you in the next 1 year. Accordingly, you will stop hiring sales people and you will start searching people for collection.

But its very confusing because we are not taking about 10 thousand customers, the banking base can be 5 mio , 10 mio may be more than that. How will you manage the whole thing? It is very difficult to channelize everything. China’s 3rd biggest bank’s loan portfolio is higher than Indian’s GDP. So you can understand it is tough to do this prioritization across the Bank.

That’s why every bank divides the analytical projects into two parts. One, risk scores where your objective is to decrease the risk and another one marketing score, where your objective is to increase the revenue .Now if you marry both, you will get a stable Revenue growth, manageable loss numbers and as a result bank will get good profit which means good salary, bonus to its employees, Good return its share holders. The cherished Goal that every organization is having.

Now the question is, what the things that we can offer in risk and marketing. In risk the objective is to manage the loss. Now the products that we can offer in risk are

Application scorecard: If you are asking for PL or credit card or any loan products should I give you the product or not, because there is a change that you will not pay.

Behavior scorecard: bank is having good existing customers thinking to sell a loan to them , so whom they should and whom they should not.

Collection Scorecard: Now bank is having customers not paying their credit card minimum fee , now few customers are good .They just forgot to pay and few customers are genuinely bad. So ,the collection manager needs a strategy to call people.

Recovery Scorecard: From the list of total defaulters who are highly likely to pay

Bankruptcy Scorecard: Again helping you in the loss forecast.

For marketing where the objective is to increase revenue, you can do

Market Demand/Competition Analysis:

You can do an analysis if there is any segment in the model that you have not touched till now. Is it possible to design a product for them?

Look-a-like Model :

Till now you have not lunched any campaign and particular product but from the historical data you can find out what is the profile of customers taken this product in past , so you can go more focused now.

Cross-sell/Propensity Model: You want to know the customers’ propensity to take your product

Next best product algorithm: If the customer is already having a product what will be the next product to sell him.

Segmentation: You want to know how many different types of segments are there in your portfolio, so you can understand if there is any need for new product.

So that was a global idea about Scorecard and its usage. Now let me start how to build a good scorecard

There are 5 steps that you have to follow to build a successful scorecard.

First is the business understanding, when I was presenting my first Credit card X-sell scorecard in redpill , my age was 25 and the person I was presenting to , means client , he was having 25 years of experience in credit card. So, you can understand if he is having a problem he will not to my level. I have to reach there and understand it and have to give the solution in his business language. He liked my scorecard and they implemented it and the result was really good. But you know this good is just an English word, you have to calculate the Good = How much is incremental revenue? Because you have to show to the client what is the benefit they are getting from us.

Second is Data, If your data is wrong all the other 3 steps will be just waste. It’s like garbage is and garbage out.

Third, Variables creation. Show your creativity and try to create variables which will be surrogates of the customers’ characteristics.

Then the scorecard building where you will calculate the propensity using regression model . You have to check the statistical statistics to get the best one.

Last is validation, you have to prove that your solution is time independent.

Let me discuss the points in details. When client will give you the problem, it will be in their languages. Your business understanding will translate the problem in a statistical problem and through the statistics you will try to solve the statistical problem.

Like,

• My credit card portfolio annual attrition rate of 20%, that’s it .Client wants the solution.
Now, because you know their business, you will convert it “Need to identify customers highly likely to attrite”. Because they can action on that. Same like

• My SME portfolio is having only 10% loan and 90% Saving account customers

• Only 6% of my Saving account base use debit card every month

• My personal loan delinquency has crossed 8%

• 12% of my personal loan customers are foreclosing their loans

So the statistical solutions will be:

• Need to identify SME customers highly likely to take loans

• Need to identify customers less propensity to use debit card

• Need to identify customers highly likely to default

• Need to identify customers having higher propensity to prepay ( indirect attrition)

After understanding the problem, you will go to the data. Fix the observation period and prediction period, means you will take the data about the customer characteristics from the observation period and you will do your independent variable tagging (good / Bad or Takers / Non takers) in the prediction. We have an automated data extraction query, written in SAS / SQL. After getting the data we do cleaning, validation. We do basic statistics to find out the outliers. Next you have to do a scorecard building. There are few patent statistics that you have to check. Final step is validation. You have to prove that your solutions are time independent.

Analytics is not only about giving solutions or earning money, it is to become more and more logical and to teach your mind that for everything there is a reason.

Mount Bromo : I Still Like to Recall

Mount Bromo : I want to visit again before my last sleep

Sometime I really miss Jakarta and Indonesians. Nice people. They don’t shout.They don’t lie .They don’t work. They just chill. I will never forget that girl who told me happily that they lost their everything in 2006 earthquake. Even that time also she was smiling. I surprised. First I felt pity for her but very soon I realized, it’s a gift. It is easy to cry on something which is really bad but very difficult to laugh. They can do that. Tsunami, earthquake, Volcano, all possible natural calamities curse them every year. They fight and fight with a beautiful nirvana smile. Really, they are the sleeping Buddhas. In end of Mar’09 I could hear my exam ending bell in Jakarta. Company indirectly told me about their plans which started with sending “Indians” to “India”.


Before going back to India, I thought to visit few famous places in Indonesia which I had not covered till then. Mount Bromo scored first in my mind. I packed my bags and got the tickets. Jakarta to Surabaya, Air Asia. I love Air Asia. Girls are really good but only in Indonesian domestic roots. Problem came with accommodation. Different types of options are there. If you are not sure about what exactly you want, my advice will be check out all possible options. All the hotels are in the same place only. So, it will hardly take 30 mins to get the best & comfortable one for yourself. Here is the list.

• Cafe Lava, Cemoro Lawang (very close to the park entrance). This is a good budget option and it does have a rather wonderful name. Famous for its cheery attitude to visitors and notoriously bad food! From Rp 120,000 for an economy room.

• Cemara Indah, Cemoro Lawang, +62 335 541019. Nice views of Mount Bromo and all 15 rooms have hot water. You can sit in the restaurant and view Mount Bromo directly. From Rp 200,00 to 600,000.


• Hotel Bromo Permai, Jl Raya Cemoro Lawang, Ngadisari, East Java, +62 335 23459. It is right on top in a fabulous location but it is not cheap compared to the other options. Also reports of the hot water and heating not working. This place has been known to test the mettle of the most undemanding of travelers. The location does make up for that a bit though.

• Lava View Lodge, Cemoro Lawang, +62 335 541009. The most upmarket option in Cemoro Lawang, located at the caldera edge some 500m west of the village and the price is a bit higher than other options here. From Rp 375,000.

• Yoschi's, +62 335 541018, This German-run place is a bit of legend on the backpacker circuit. It is located about 3 km down from Cemero Lawang. Probably the best value option anywhere near the park and serves notably good food. Has 24 rooms and two x 2 bedroom family cottages. From Rp 104,000.



I took Cemara Indah. Thanks to Wiki travel and lonely Planet. I took the morning flight from Jakarta and landed in Surabaya at 10:30 am. Airport is good in Surabaya. If you love Indo or Japanese food, no need to do breakfast in Jakarta. Come out from the airport and turn right. Just in 5 mins walking distance you will get a very good Japanese restaurant. Give my kiss to the resto girls with your bill. A wake-up Sunrise was waiting for me. May end. Rain God has gone towards India, so Sun is shining in the sky. Spotless, Golden sunrise. I love light just like beer.


In the holiday mood I become a beer hunter. I drink, I bath & I breathe only beer. The dreamy, foggy state that it creates. The local Indonesian beer, Bintang, is a great stimulant for such a travel mood. After the breakfast, now it is the time to hit the bus. To reach to Bromo the last bus point is “Probolingo”. Direct bus ( 2 Usd) is there from Airport. Also you can hire an Inova which will cost you 60 Usd. Busses are good across Indonesia. Actually Government has spent all of its travel related money on Roads & Rails. As a result Bus & Train Transports are very good and airport or flights better not to talk. From Airport to Probolingo is about 2 hours journey.


Be cautious, otherwise they will not knock you at the right spot. Just talk to the contractor frequently and somehow make him understand that you want to go Bromo.When I landed in Probolingo , It was 11:30.It is a big Bus station. You will get small maxi-taxi till your hotel but my suggestion is something different, as usual. I took an ojek, simple motor bike ride.


If you an adventure lover. This is the first step for you. Ojek drivers are really reliable. They will start bargaining from 7 – 8 Usd , give them 5 Usd and tell you want to take photos in between , so he has to stop for a while. It is 45 mins ride. I am sure your back will start paining but believe me it’s worth it.


Urban people like me got the chance to kiss Mother Nature again. Started recalling my native town, Darjeeling. Same greenery everywhere. With the time and speed you will be able to feel the cold, you will feel the fresh vegetable smell in your breathe. Why people scare about volcanoes. It gives a very fertile land and Bromo people have for the hint long back. That’s why they did not leave a single square in their place. Cemara Indah is the last hotel. After that only Sand Sea. You can see the horizon meeting blue sky, the white sulphur smoke coming out from the crater of the volcano and waving Good bye to everyone, just like “the Lazy Ocean hits the shore”. Rainy clouds hit the back of a volcano and it gets all the blue water. That’s why always the back side of a volcano you will find greenery. Indonesian people call it Savana.


I will advice you to visit Bromo in the end of monsoon means late may or starting of June. I reached at the hotel before 2 o’clock. Atmosphere was very cool. I rented a jacket for 2.5 USD (Per day).Sun shine made my day glorious. No work, No follow up, no office caricature, no criticizing of people. Only nature and you. Best place for create thinking. I will never forget the French crowd, the wooden colonial restaurant and a great sunset with a Bintang dreamy mood.

Stone, Sand & Sky: Hard work, Hypocrisy & Humanity

Stone, Sand & Sky: Hard work, Hypocrisy & Humanity

Chapter 1

When the Air Asia flight was landing in Bali Denpasar airport, sun was showing his power in the middle on the sky. Anirban was enjoying the view through the window. Sun light was reflecting on the deep blue Indian Ocean. Particles of water were looking like small jewels. Team was really tired. Chennai to Kuala Lumpur, Kuala Lumpur to Bali and that’s also for 2 days, does not make any sense to him. This is his 5th time in Bali. As he has worked in Jakarta for two and half years, he left no plans untried to explore parts of Bali and Java. He loved Indonesia. People are good, cool and calm. Not like Indians.

The booked Intercontinental for 3 days 2 nights. No doubt it was special and black diamond knows how to celebrate it. Ani joined black diamond 3 years back in Jakarta from India’s one of the most profitable Bank.He is a Data Miner or simply a statistical analyst. He joined like this and no promotion, no appreciation till now. Reasons are not clear to anyone. But people love him. He is a nice, intelligent guy. May be that’s the reason.

In India still aboard journey is a big thing. That’s the reason why a company doesn’t think about the journey pain of the Indians before arranging a 2 days trip which requires more than 35 hours of flight journey. Actually Indians are the big racists in this bloody earth. They still feel great to hate themselves and to love white asses.

Leave that part. Let’s continue the story.

RAKHI SAWANT : Show some self respect

Indian TV channels : Best place for frustrated Males

These days Indian TV has become a battle ground of reality shows. After 9 pm. please switch on the TV set and educate yourself about "how Indian girls abuse each other", "how they take bath"," what are their expectations from marriage" etc. I am not at all gender biased. Guys are also getting chances to scatter their self respect on the celluloid but the focus is on the female “parts”. Media should be the mirror of your society. Anybody, trying to create a key hole in the society, should be very much visible in that media-mirror. But Indian media has changed. Now it has become that “key hole” creating guy. I can still remember my childhood days when my parents used to say “Hindi cinema has become so vulgar, it is impossible to watch the recent Bollywood movies with kids”. Now it is difficult to watch TV channels even with your friends, provided you are not a gay.



Your evening will get the first time bomb when a creature called Rakhi sawant will come on your TV screen to find her husband. The drama is called Sayambar .This is not a “new” thing in Indian history. 500-600 years ago it used to be a custom in India. Old India was not as orthodox & hypocrite as the present. We used to believe in freedom irrespective of the gender. The King used to invite all his neighbor princes to his palace and the princess used to get the privilege to choose the one she liked most. (Over the time the custom remained same but the procedure changed. Now the guys go to the “brides'” house but it is in their hands if they want to take it forward. That’s something called arranged marriage).Please note one point, whole thing will be called by the King not by his daughter.Rakhi Swant (female) thought to start a new tradition for some cheap publicity & fame. It is not new for her. People have seen so many item dancers in their life but such a shameless slut may be first time.



12000 self respect less guys sent their CV to the Channel and from those 13 got selected to be harassed in front of the camera. Now they have to prove themselves through so many eliminating rounds. Sometimes they dance and touch Rakhi, Rakhi tries to feel that whose touch she is liking most, Sometimes they crack jokes and do cheap oiling on Rakhi , Rakhi checks who’s massage is working etc etc. I liked one guy in that list. He is handsome and smart. He just waits for the chance and kisses Rakhi. He does it in such a moment that no one can stop him. Its like, you are getting nature call when your hands are tide with ropes and only one human is around who is a rapist. After that he becomes a mamma’s boy and ask for sorry from everyone. Other people start shouting on him like anything. But he will remain cool, just like an obedient husband’s cry “it was purely impulse driven baby (angry wife), I will never buy a whisky of 1000 $ in my whole life”.



Rakhi liked it all the times in both ways .All the guys were shouting for her when she was getting kissed by that handsome guy. But I agree with you Rakhi . In a country like India where everyday girls are getting raped , killed , slaughtered like anything , there a cheap girl like you are getting a Handsome kiss and people are protesting against it , is really a dream come true .I know few of my seniors , they last kissed their wives when they got their second child who is grade 5 now. Leave that shit.



The show became really hot when Rakhi went to native places of the top 5 selected guys. I got really surprised when I saw one of the guy’s sister was asking for Rakhi’s tips to become like her. Oh My God. Does she know the level of videos Rakhi Sawant has done in her struggling days??? Even in this male dominated India, it is very difficult to become as famous as Rakhi Sawant with that ugly face. Now you can understand what she has done to take down the focus from Face to B****. Rakhi worth spending. I am feeling pity for those female artists who invested in share market before Sep’08.

In the middle of the show few advertisements will come. No doubt all frustrated men now in front of the TV, so condom is the best thing to offer. My 4 years of analytical mind can understand that without “pulling” any data. Few other things will also come .Be cautious. One girl starts shouting on another girl in a language which may be the cheapest to express your emotions in English or Hindi. I don’t feel bad for those girls but I feel sympathy for those guys who will get married with these Surpanakhas (One old lady demon in Hindu mythology). Suddenly on girl will start taking bath in a jungle . Its like my soul has got the eyes and has entered in the girls’ bathroom. My “Bihari” roomy always watches that show and waits for the “shower moment “.One day he asked me “the anchor looks really good , will she also take bath in the show.” I waved,” depends on the producer’s mood. If his wife has satisfied him last night then “No” or today you will be double lucky. “ . That show is called “Is jungle se Mujhey Bacho” (Rescue me from this jungle).



Advertisement is over; we are again in Rakhi’s show. Now the climax, 3 grooms are waiting, Rakhi has got her big garment and thinking whom to choose. A great tension. I am also waiting anxiously, like they will make the next show on “Rakhi ka Suhag Raat “(first night of Rakhi) and the hero is getting selected now. Again dollar wins over rupee. Rakhi has chosen the Canadian guy (of course migrant).But the twist was, “we want to know each other more. I can marry him now only but we want to wait. Please give us your blessing”.

Well done Rakhi , You f***** so many hours of whole India and still they don’t ban you.

Lucky Umbrella

God can you hear me, here I am changing its life


It’s monsoon in Chennai, south India. After a long waiting, I think God has got time to look at India. Thanks God. Today when I came to office in the morning, it was raining cats and dog. I closed my wet umbrella and put it in my plastic bag. I know most of will not suggest that. Actually I am bit jealous with my umbrella. Basically, all of my Male colleagues come by their cars and so they don’t carry any umbrella. Picture is different for females. They come by busses and they have lovely, colourful umbrellas. This week two days I have seen my umbrella covered by 4-5 beautiful lady umbrellas drying their Water on the floor. In India always poets have their nasty thoughts about wet female figure. Frankly speaking, I am not a poet but yes I also have same thoughts. But the fact is, I can only see them in dreams. I don’t even have a girl friend, actually I never had.So, people like me has spent money to buy an umbrella and that bloody umbrella (whose life is actually in my hand) will get such a beautiful ,wet female company ???? It is not going to happen. God can you hear me, here I am changing its life. You can’t stop me.

May be the ladies umbrellas are in wet bikini, may be they are having nasty talks. who knows !!! Shit Man. If the owner is not getting such a wonderful life , umbrella will also not . And I have done it.

God: What the f*** are you talking about???, Me: You heard me.

These days I don’t dry my umbrella on the floor , even I think drying umbrella is not a good idea at all. Ladies have a tendency to put their umbrellas where they see another umbrella. So I put mine in a plastic bag which has cost me as much as the umbrella.I am ok. I know it is killing umbrella’s life but I don’t care. I have enough money. I am ready to buy another umbrella even in this season.